Georgia Special Election Runoffs – Early Voting Update

There are six business days left for advance/absentee voting in Georgia House Districts 80, 146, and 155 for the upcoming August 11 runoffs.  Here are the latest tallies of approved votes (either early in-person voting or received mail-in ballots), through Thursday, July 30th:

  • Fulton County (HD #80) – 11
  • DeKalb County (HD #80) – 97

Houston County (HD #146) – 936

  • Ben Hill County (HD #155) – 71
  • Coffee County (HD #155) – 10
  • Irwin County (HD #155) – 0 (it appears that Irwin County has not had any in-person early voting for the runoff)
  • Tift County (HD #155) – 34
  • Turner County (HD #155) – 116

Comparisons to the number of votes cast in those same locations in the July 14 special elections are a little difficult because that advance voting schedule was impacted by the Independence Day holiday (July 3rd).  For the special elections, early voting took place for three weeks prior to July 14th.  But for comparison, here were the number of approved votes cast in the special elections through July 1st (when there were six business days left to vote in person or mail-in an absentee ballot):

  • Fulton County (HD #80) – 8
  • DeKalb County (HD #80) – 38

Houston County (HD #146) – 768

  • Ben Hill County (HD #155) – 187
  • Coffee County (HD #155) – 10
  • Irwin County (HD #155) – 179
  • Tift County (HD #155) – 82
  • Turner County (HD #155) – 107

So, it appears that voter enthusiasm for the runoff is strong in HD #80 and #146, but down significantly in HD #155.

South Carolina HD #106 – Initial Review of Results

Over the last six weeks, I have developed and refined my methodology for analyzing special election campaigns based on the address of each candidate’s contributors, per their filed campaign finance reports.  I have applied this to several campaigns across two states (Georgia and South Carolina).  As a result, I am starting to understand its strengths and shortcomings, as well as devising ways to make the analysis process more efficient.  I have also quickly come to the conclusion that I am unable to apply this to every local, special, or runoff campaign.  So, over the coming weeks and months, I’ll need to focus on planning so as to most effectively devote time and energy towards particular races using various analysis techniques.  As those decisions get made, I intend to note that somehow on this web site, so that regular readers can know which races I’ll be focusing on.

Continue reading South Carolina HD #106 – Initial Review of Results

South Carolina HD #106 – An analysis of campaign contributions in a South Carolina special election

Over the last few months, I introduced a methodology for gauging voter support and candidate engagement in local special elections based on the address of each campaign’s political contributors.  In a purely local campaign, it is generally not enough to establish name recognition or attract agreement with policy positions.  In order to win, a candidate must get voters to actually make the effort to vote for them.  This sounds obvious, of course, but it is actually quite an undertaking when talking about a special election in the middle of July.  Obviously, there are some regular, dedicated, citizens who vote in every election, no matter what.  But in today’s increasingly busy society, the number of those folks is likely dwindling.

Continue reading South Carolina HD #106 – An analysis of campaign contributions in a South Carolina special election

Local & Special Elections Update – July 14 11:45pm

On Tuesday, the six elections in Georgia produced three winners- Sheri Gilligan in the HD #24 runoff, Marie Metze in the HD #55 runoff, and Betty Price, who won the HD #48 special election outright.  We also now have three more runoffs, scheduled for August 11, in HD #80, HD #146 and HD #155.

There was already some early discussion about tonight’s results as they came in which took place on my Twitter feed, and I recommend that you follow me there if you don’t already.  In summary, there were some surprises, but not too many, and I’m looking forward to reviewing what actually happened to try to improve my analyses.  I actually can’t wait to dive into these races further, but it will have to wait a bit.  I’m excited to be taking my son on a college visit tomorrow.

Georgia HD 155 – Campaign contributions in a rural district

It is Election Day in six state legislative districts in Georgia, and I’ve been analyzing some of these races quite extensively.  With the polls opening this morning, this race in the rural, south-central part of the state is the last one I’ll be able to analyze this cycle.  If this is the first post you’ve read, you’ll likely want to review my debut of this methodology, for the June 16 special election in Georgia State House District 24, here.  In the last few days, there have also been analyses of HD #48 here and HD #80 here.

Continue reading Georgia HD 155 – Campaign contributions in a rural district

Georgia HD #80 – Still more analysis of campaign contributions

I’m continuing with my analysis of Tuesday’s special elections in Georgia using my methodology for gauging voter support based on the address associated with each campaign donation.  As noted previously, my theory is that voter turnout in special elections is driven by the type of motivated supporters who donate to local candidates, as these are precisely the type of people who will encourage their friends and neighbors to get out to vote. (Here is my initial analysis for last month’s special election in HD #24 here.  Earlier today, I also posted an analysis of tomorrow’s special election in HD #48 here.)

Continue reading Georgia HD #80 – Still more analysis of campaign contributions

Georgia HD 48: Looking again at campaign contributions

Last month, when analyzing the special election in Georgia State House District #24, I introduced a methodology for gauging voter support in local special elections based on the address of each campaign’s political contributors. (One can read that analysis here, as well as a review after the election, here.)  My theory is that very motivated supporters are needed to drive voter turnout in special elections, and those who donate to a local candidate are precisely the type of people who will encourage and hound their friends and neighbors to make that happen.  There are six special elections in Georgia tomorrow for vacancies in the State House of Representatives, and I am looking to do a similar analysis for as many of those races as possible.

Continue reading Georgia HD 48: Looking again at campaign contributions

Georgia Special Election Runoffs – some history

There will be voting in six Georgia State House districts on Tuesday, which is no secret to those who follow this site on Twitter, as I’ve been providing updates on early voting totals and the like.  There are four special elections, with each featuring three or more candidates, and two runoffs from special elections held on June 16.

Continue reading Georgia Special Election Runoffs – some history

Georgia Special Elections on July 14 – Early Voting

Both here and on my Twitter feed (@SpecialElex), I’ve been closely tracking the early voting in Tuesday’s runoff in Georgia State House District #24 in Forsyth County.  But there are five other elections taking place that day in Georgia, and I plan to analyze those races also as time permits in the coming days.  

Continue reading Georgia Special Elections on July 14 – Early Voting