There will be voting in six Georgia State House districts on Tuesday, which is no secret to those who follow this site on Twitter, as I’ve been providing updates on early voting totals and the like. There are four special elections, with each featuring three or more candidates, and two runoffs from special elections held on June 16.
To provide a sense of recent history, I updated an analysis detailing all Runoffs in State Senate and State House special elections in Georgia going back to 2010.
Turnout goes up
Voter turnout in these runoffs tends to equal, or even exceed, the number of votes cast in the original special election. If one excludes those cases where either the special or runoff election coincided with a November general election or Presidential Primary, the total votes cast in the Runoff was more than the Special election 8 out of 12 times.
Special Election winners are generally successful
Over the last 19 occasions, the candidate who finished first in the original special election went on to win the runoff almost 75% of the time. If again, one excludes those cases where either the Special Election or the Runoff took place along with the November general election or Presidential Primary, the original runner-up has come back to win the Runoff only once in twelve tries. Interestingly, that one instance occurred this past February, as Brad Raffensperger won his Runoff in HD #50 by about 150 votes after finishing second in the January Special Election. However, it is important to note that Raffensperger received almost 42% and only trailed Kelly Stewart by 50 votes in the first round of voting.