Wisconsin AD #99 Republican Primary – Initial Review

I wrote a detailed analysis and preview of yesterday’s Assembly District #99 Republican primary in Wisconsin (you can read it here).  And as you know if you follow me on Twitter, where I was live-Tweeting the results last night, Cindi Duchow won with just over 40% of the vote.

Here is a summary of the final, unofficial results:

Wisconsin AD 99 Final Unofficial Results

In my post yesterday, I analyzed the location of each candidate’s campaign contributions to assess where in the district he or she was likely to receive the most support.  And based on that, I determined that David Westlake had the most in-district donations, which were also spread over a broader area.  Furthermore, he had a near-monopoly among the candidates in some of the vote-rich wards in the northern part of the district.  So, what happened?  Part of the answer lies in variations of turnout:

Republican votes in WI AD 99 by region

Ms. Duchow’s home area, and where most of her in-district contributors were located, is the town of Delafield.  I expected her to do very well there and she did, receiving almost 55% of the vote.  But what was also significant is that the total number of votes cast in those wards was down only 14% from June’s primary for State Senate District #33.  Contrast that with Hartland, which is Mr. Westlake’s home area, which saw a 36% reduction in votes cast as compared to that June primary.

This tells only part of the story, however.  An even bigger reason was simply that Ms. Duchow performed better in areas all across the district.  Mr. Westlake had a near-monopoly of in-district contributors in both the town of Merton and the city of Delafield.  Yet, Ms. Duchow narrowly won in Delafield and carried Merton by a significant margin.  And in those areas won by Mr. Owens, the third-place finisher, such as Genesee, Ottawa, and Wales, Ms. Duchow either finished second or a very close third.

As noted previously, my methodology of analyzing campaign contributions is never going to be perfect, and I remain eager to accumulate experience in applying it to an increasing number of elections to identify ways it can be modified and improved.





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