State Legislative Special Elections to be held on Nov. 3, 2015

There will be special elections for 24 state legislative seats in 12 states next Tuesday.  I listed them out and classified them by type of election in a handy chart you can print and use as results are reported on Election Night:

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2015 Louisiana State Senate elections wrap-up

Louisiana held their state elections on Saturday, and if you follow politics at all, you know the headline outcome is a November 21st runoff in the Governor’s race between Republican U.S. Senator David Vitter and Democratic State Representative John Bel Edwards.  A complete list of unofficial election results is at the Secretary of State’s web site.  Statewide executive office and constitutional amendment totals can be found here, while results for state legislative races are here.  Here are some quick thoughts:

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Four Louisiana State Senate races most likely to require a runoff

As I continue with my analysis of the Louisiana State Senate elections being held today, here are the 4 Louisiana State Senate races I think are most likely to require a runoff:

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3 Louisiana State Senate Incumbents to watch

Today is Election Day in Louisiana, and polls will close at 8 pm Central Time.  Voters will be electing all statewide offices (Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Treasurer, Commissioner of Agriculture and Forestry, and Commissioner of Insurance), as well as all 144 seats in the state legislature.  There are also elections for regional positions on the state’s education board (the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, or BESE), parish administrative positions (such as sheriff and court clerk), and four proposed constitutional amendments.  In short, there’s a lot to vote on.

If you want more information about any of those specific races, I highly recommend all of the great work down by the folks at Ballotpedia.  Their summary page about all of today’s elections in Louisiana is here.  If you just want a quick analysis of the downballot races for statewide office, Nathaniel Rakich did a nice summary last month on his blog, Baseballot.

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2015 Louisiana State Senate elections

Louisiana conducts its state elections using what is known as an open primary system (sometimes called a “jungle primary”).  In this format, all candidates run together on the same ballot.  If one candidate gets a majority of the votes, they are declared the winner.  Otherwise, the top two candidates, regardless of party affiliation, face each other in a runoff.

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Charlotte Mayoral Primary – Can we tell who voted for whom?

The runoff election in the Democratic primary for Mayor of Charlotte is on Tuesday, October 6th, as Jennifer Roberts, who finished first in the September primary with 35.8%, squares off against incumbent Dan Clodfelter, who finished second with 25.7%.  While Mr. Clodfelter is the incumbent, he was appointed as Mayor by Charlotte’s City Council in April 2014 following Mayor Patrick Cannon’s resignation after being arrested on corruption charges.  Prior to that appointment, Mr. Clodfelter had served in the North Carolina State Senate and as a City Council member in Charlotte.

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Charlotte Mayoral Election – A look at who voted in the 2015 primary

There is a second primary (or runoff) to determine the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina, on Tuesday since no candidate received more than 40% of the total votes cast in the first primary on September 15th.  Then, Jennifer Roberts was first in the six-candidate field with 35.8%, and will face incumbent Mayor Dan Clodfelter, who was second with 25.8%.

In advance of tomorrow’s voting, I analyzed the Mecklenburg County Voter Data file for insights into the make-up of the Democratic electorate of the September 15th first primary (with a comparison to the make-up of those who voted in the 2013 Democratic Mayoral primary, as was noted here):

  • Almost 20% (19.3%) of those who cast ballots in September’s Democratic primary were unaffiliated voters.  These voters, along with unaffiliated voters who did not participate three weeks ago, may vote on Tuesday.
  • The 2015 Democratic primary electorate in Charlotte was predominantly female, especially among those who were registered Democrats.  Of the over 31,000 voters in September’s primary, 61% were women, and 64% of registered Democrats who voted were women.  The unaffiliated voters who participated in the Democratic primary were almost evenly split by gender.  This is similar to 2013, when women made up about 63% of Democratic primary voters.
  • Black voters comprised 55% of those who voted in September’s Democratic Mayoral primary, including 63% of those who were registered Democrats.  Interestingly, unaffiliated voters who voted in this primary were overwhelmingly white (70%).  The percentage of black voters in the 2015 Democratic primary is down significantly from two years ago, as I estimate that 70% of those who voted in the 2013 Democratic primary were black.
  • The median age of those who voted in the 2015 Democratic primary is about 59, which is slightly older than the median age of 2013 Democratic primary voters, which was 56.