Local & Special Elections Update – February 10, 2015

Voting is taking place today in:

Iowa State House District #23, in the southwestern corner of the state.  This seat was previously held by Republican Mark Costello, who won election back in January to the State Senate seat formerly held by now-U.S. Senator Joni Ernst.  This is a very Republican district, and will be even more so in a low-turnout special election.  GOP nominee and farmer David Sieck is certain to defeat Democrat Steve Adams.

Florida State House District #64, near Tampa.  Incumbent James Grant won re-election back in November, but various judicial rulings related to a write-in candidate caused the Florida House to invalidate those results.  However, Grant is the only Republican candidate on the ballot and seems certain to win both today and in the special election voting in April.

Arkansas State Senate District #16, in the northwestern part of the state.  The seat in this rural district is open because Michael Lamoureux became chief of staff to newly-elected Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson.  Today’s voting is a runoff in the GOP primary between former State Representative Stan Berry and insurance agent Greg Standridge.  Standridge almost won the Republican nod outright back in January with 48 percent of the vote, as compared to Berry’s 41 percent.  Again, the winner here will surely be the next State Senator from this district.

 There are also school board elections today in Oklahoma, but there are very few contested seats, and none in the major cities of Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

Georgia Special Election Runoffs – HD #50 & HD #120

It appears that all votes have been counted here except for provisional ballots in these two races.

In HD #50, Brad Raffensperger defeated Kelly Stewart by about 150 votes, despite finishing 2nd by about 50 votes four weeks ago.  Total votes cast in the runoff was 17% greater than in the initial round of voting.  Raffensperger is the first candidate to win a Special Election Runoff in Georgia after finishing 2nd in the Special Election since Tom Kirby did it three years ago in HD #107.

Continue reading Georgia Special Election Runoffs – HD #50 & HD #120

Local & Special Elections Update – February 3, 2015

Voting is today in runoffs for special elections in two Georgia State House Districts, HD #50 in Fulton County (near Atlanta) and HD #120, covering several counties in northeast Georgia.

Here are the results from the special election voting on January 6:

Continue reading Local & Special Elections Update – February 3, 2015

Albuquerque School Board Elections

The Bernalillo County Elections Division website is noting that all voting centers have reported their numbers for today’s Albuquerque Public School (APS) Board elections.

In District 1, APS Board President Analee Maestas easily won re-election to a second term, gaining 72% against two challengers.

In District 2, incumbent Kathy Korte lost her re-election bid to Peggy Muller-Aragon, 63%-37%.

In District 4, Marty Esquivel did not seek re-election.  Retired APS teacher Barbara Petersen easily defeated four other candidates.

Georgia Special Election Runoffs – HD #50 & HD #120

In preparation for tomorrow’s runoff elections in two Georgia state representative districts, I summarized voter turnout in all state legislative special elections in that state since 2010.  The results of that analysis appear at the bottom of this post.

Here are a few interesting findings:

Although conventional wisdom suggests that voter turnout for runoff elections is lower than for the original election, the data for Georgia during this period says otherwise.  In almost half the instances (8 out of 17), the total votes cast in the runoff was actually greater than that in the special election held 4 weeks earlier.  If one removes those instances where either the special or runoff election coincided with a statewide general or Presidential primary Election Day, voter turnout actually went up for the runoff 7 out of 10 times.

Continue reading Georgia Special Election Runoffs – HD #50 & HD #120

Local & Special Elections Update – Jan. 31, 2015

This has been a very active few months for state legislative special elections, as several states have held contests throughout December and January.  Most of these have been caused by state legislators resigning their positions either because they were elected to higher office (such as Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa) or were tapped by new Governors for spots in their administration.

Since Election Day 2014, there have been special elections in Texas, Florida, Iowa, Virginia, Georgia, California, and Arkansas.  And there are more to come, especially in those jurisdictions that use runoffs.  Furthermore, regularly scheduled 2015 elections are beginning in various places around the country.  This has been a very active season so far.

In the week ahead, there is a slight lull before what will be a very active February.  This Tuesday, February 3rd, there are:

Runoffs for two Georgia House seats, HD #50 and HD #120.  These are between the top two vote-getters in special elections which took place on January 6, 2015.  Georgia special elections are officially non-partisan, but in both cases, the two candidates in the runoff are Republicans in districts that are reliably Republican.  So, there is no change in party.  HD #50 is in Fulton County, in suburban Atlanta.  HD #120 covers 5 counties in the northeastern part of the state.  Also, in both instances, the tally was close in the first round of voting.

Also, three seats are up for election in the Albuquerque Public School (APS) Board of Education, in districts 1, 2 and 4, which comprise the western side of the city.  With a total student enrollment of over 90,000 students, this is one of the larger school districts in the country.

Check back by Monday for more on these races.

Who am I

A quick note about myself:

My name is Dave Beaudoin, and I analyze election & voting data for local, special, runoff, and less-closely followed elections nationwide.  My writings and analyses are meant to be independent and non-partisan, and I do not work for any political party or interest group.

I have had a passion for following, researching, and writing about politics and government for almost twenty years.  In 1998, I founded and wrote an on-line newsletter, called “Inside the Booth,” which covered national and local political election campaigns.  I produced over 65 bi-weekly editions which featured news summaries, analysis of voting results and campaign finance reports, and detailed predictions of election outcomes.  Many previous issues of “Inside the Booth” can be viewed at: https://web.archive.org/web/20010606193801/http://www.insidethebooth.com/stidx_1.htm

I am happy to respond to questions about any of my research and analysis.  Feel free to contact me at dbeaudoin@localandspecialelections.com

Florida HD #17 – A look back to 2012

With voting tomorrow in the GOP primary for Florida State House District #17, here is some data from the last Republican primary in this district, in 2012:

Ron Renuart was the incumbent, as this district was previously  Florida House District #18.  He drew two challengers in the August 14, 2012, primary, and the voting was somewhat close:

Continue reading Florida HD #17 – A look back to 2012